The China Mail - Defiant Orban digs in over blocked Ukraine loan at EU talks

Moscow's closest partner in the bloc, the nationalist prime minister has long resisted helping Kyiv to repel Russia's invasion, stalling EU aid and repeated rounds of sanctions.

This time around, Orban is holding up a 90-billion-euro ($104 billion) loan as leverage in a feud over damage to a pipeline running through Ukraine -- which has choked the flow of Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia.

"The Hungarian position is very simple. We are ready to support Ukraine when we get our oil, which is blocked by them," Orban said on arriving at the Brussels summit -- which Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky was to address by videolink later in the day.

The EU's top diplomat Kaja Kallas warned on arrival it was "really, really time" to show support for Ukraine by unlocking the funding -- which Hungary's prime minister signed up to in December along with the rest of the bloc.

But Orban appeared determined to play hardball, as he leans into anti-EU and anti-Ukrainian narratives ahead of close-fought national elections on April 12 -- to the exasperation of fellow EU leaders.

"He's using Ukraine as a weapon in his election campaign, and it's not good. We had a deal," said Finland's Prime Minister Petteri Orpo.

The weeks-long spat has seen landlocked Hungary and Slovakia both accuse Ukraine of stalling on pipeline repairs -- while Zelensky has called it "blackmail" to link the issue to support for its war effort.

The European Commission moved this week to unblock the situation by sending a team to help restore oil transit, but Budapest has dismissed the initiative, with Orban describing it as a "fairy tale" Thursday.

"We are waiting for the oil," Orban told reporters -- calling the matter "existential" for Hungary.

"It's not a joke, it's not a political game."

Others disagreed -- suggesting the block was squarely motivated by national politics. Cue a looming showdown and a tricky balancing act for Orban's EU counterparts.

"It will be complicated before the elections in Hungary; I have the impression that this is part of his election campaign," said Belgium's Bart de Wever.

"In any case, we have to implement the decisions we've made here," he added, calling Orban's U-turn "unacceptable".

- 'No Plan B' -

It's a well worn routine in Brussels, where Orban has held up countless decisions on Ukraine, and solutions have ultimately been found -- in one famous case having him leave the room while the bloc approved the start of membership talks with Kyiv.

A German government official described a "certain momentum" on the pipeline issue -- seeing a chance of a breakthrough when leaders come face-to-face on Thursday.

But the message from other capitals was less optimistic.

"Will we make progress? I have strong doubts," said an EU diplomat, predicting Orban was "not going to budge" on a stance playing well with his voter base at home.

Complicating matters, leaders are wary of offering Orban -- who is trailing main rival Peter Magyar in the polls -- a chance to bolster his image as a maverick on the EU stage by publicly ganging up on him.

Failure to break the deadlock this week would most likely push the issue back until after the Hungarian vote, whatever its outcome.

Can Ukraine hold out until then? Unclear, say EU insiders.

Facing a budget shortfall four years into the war, Kyiv is estimated to need an influx of funds in early May -- implying a decision to unlock the EU loan by mid-April.

As Orban has dug in, there has been talk of alternative solutions to help keep Ukraine afloat -- but a second EU diplomat poured cold water on the notion.

"There's no bridging solutions or Plan B. There's only one plan, and that's Plan A," they said. "Orban should deliver on his promise."

F.Brown--ThChM