The China Mail - Oil prices dip, stocks rise on lingering Iran peace hopes

With the end of a two-week ceasefire approaching, the White House said Vice President JD Vance was ready to return to Pakistan for fresh negotiations to end a conflict that has sent crude soaring and revived inflation fears.

However, the Islamic republic's position remained uncertain as it accused Washington of violating their fragile truce through its blockade of the country's ports and seizure of a ship.

Crude plunged on Friday after Tehran said it would allow ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz, which had been effectively closed since the war began on February 28.

But the commodity rebounded on Monday as Iran closed the waterway again, citing the blockade and seizure.

Donald Trump has similarly accused Tehran of violating the ceasefire by harassing vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, the transit passage for about one-fifth of global oil.

The US president said the blockade would not be lifted until an agreement had been reached.

"THE BLOCKADE, which we will not take off until there is a 'DEAL,' is absolutely destroying Iran," Trump said on social media. "They are losing $500 Million Dollars a day, an unsustainable number, even in the short run."

He told PBS News that Iran was "supposed to be there" at the talks in Pakistan.

"We agreed to be there," he said, warning that if the ceasefire expired "then lots of bombs start going off".

He separately told Bloomberg News it was "highly unlikely" he would extend the truce.

Based on its start time, the truce theoretically expires overnight on Tuesday, Iran time, although in his comments to Bloomberg Trump said the end was Wednesday evening Washington time.

The Middle Eastern country's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said "Trump wants to turn this negotiating table into a surrender table or justify renewed hostilities, as he sees fit".

"We do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats, and in the last two weeks we have been preparing to show new cards on the battlefield," he wrote on X.

Still, investors remained largely upbeat that the two sides will eventually come to a deal that will reopen the strategic strait.

US benchmark crude West Texas Intermediate rose more than one percent, while Brent was also higher.

- Seoul record -

Seoul led the equity market gains thanks to a resumption of the tech rally that had pushed the Kospi to multiple records before the war, climbing 2.7 percent to hit a fresh record high.

Tokyo and Taipei were also well up, with Hong Kong, Shanghai, Singapore, Wellington, Mumbai and Bangkok also advancing.

London and Frankfurt rose while Paris was flat.

That came even after a down day on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite retreated from Friday's record closes.

Asia had opened "with a gentle lean into risk as signs Iran may join talks with the US offer a pathway, however narrow, toward easing tensions ahead of the ceasefire deadline", wrote SPI Asset Management's Stephen Innes.

"Trump's remark that a ceasefire extension is 'highly unlikely' if no deal is reached has effectively put a clock on the market.

"However, traders recognise the playbook. Hard deadlines and firm rhetoric often soften as negotiations evolve, but the presence of a timeline still sharpens positioning and raises the stakes around each headline."

And Michael Brown at Pepperstone said it was "now in the interests of both sides -- the US as public support for the war dwindles, and Iran given the primary objective simply of 'survival' -- to bring the conflict to an end".

"Viewed through that lens, all the punchy rhetoric and headline noise that we continue to hear is largely geared towards obtaining negotiating leverage, as opposed to re-escalating the conflict," he added.

In company news, Japanese arms firms enjoyed healthy buying after Tokyo said on Tuesday it would ease decades-old export rules, paving the way for the sale of lethal weapons overseas.

The policy shift, which ends Tokyo's self-imposed restraint on the sale of lethal arms, comes as it seeks to enter the international arms market, hoping to bolster national defence as well as boost economic growth.

Fujitsu climbed 2.4 percent, NEC added 3.7 percent and Mitsubishi Electric was up 0.9 percent, while Mitsubishi Heavy gained 0.4 percent.

- Key figures around 0715 GMT -

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 1.4 percent at $88.35 a barrel

Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.7 percent at $94.78 a barrel

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: UP 0.9 percent at 59,349.17 (close)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: UP 0.4 percent at 26,464.63

Shanghai - Composite: UP 0.1 percent at 4,085.08 (close)

London - FTSE 100: UP 0.1 percent at 10,622.47

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1777 from $1.1786 on Monday

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3522 from $1.3535

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 158.81 yen from 158.88 yen

Euro/pound: UP at 87.10 pence from 87.07 pence

New York - Dow Jones: FLAT at 49,442.56 (close)

S.Wilson--ThChM