The China Mail - Sinwar killing a blow to Hamas but impact on war uncertain

Israel had been hunting Sinwar since the October 7, 2023 attacks that he masterminded. Israeli leaders called the 61-year-old a "dead man walking".

Coming soon after the killing attributed to Israel of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Sinwar's death leaves Hamas facing a leadership vacuum and a strategy dilemma.

Sinwar was seen as an intransigent figure who preferred military solutions to political ones.

After hailing Sinwar's death, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu swiftly warned the war "is not over yet" while also offering to spare Hamas militants who lay down their weapons or free October 7 hostages.

David Khalfa, a Middle East expert at the Jean-Jaures Foundation, a Paris think-tank, called the death a "very hard" blow that would have a "psychological" impact on Hamas.

"Sinwar was much feared, including within the movement. He was Tehran's man," said Khalfa, referring to his strong ties with Iran's leaders.

Elliot Abrams, a senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) in Washington, said the death "may be a game changer."

"He seems to have been unwilling to negotiate," he said. "We're in for a period of confusion because, who is in charge now?"

- 'Won't disappear' -

The war has already taken an immense toll.

The Hamas October 7 attack resulted in the deaths of 1,206 people in Israel, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures that include hostages killed in captivity.

Of the 251 people abducted, 97 are still being held in Gaza, and 34 have been declared dead by the Israeli army.

Israel's retaliatory military offensive in Gaza has killed 42,438 people, a majority civilians, according to the Hamas-run territory's health ministry. The UN says the figures are reliable.

Michael Horowitz, an expert at the Middle East-based security consultancy Le Beck, said Sinwar's demise would feel "personal" for many Israelis as well as Netanyahu who had made killing Sinwar a part of his "total victory" strategy.

But Horowitz warned that Hamas would not "disappear unless it is replaced by an alternative".

"The Israeli government has so far taken no step to help foster an alternative to Hamas."

Eva Koulouriotis, a political analyst specialising in the Middle East, said she expected Hamas to change policy.

"Sinwar was not a politician and did not believe in political solutions," she said.

"His top priority was to develop the militia's military capabilities."

- 'Pressure to grow' -

Analysts believe Sinwar's death could facilitate the resumption of negotiations on a ceasefire and hostage release.

Israel and Hamas have blamed each other for the failure to end the fighting, free hostages and allow vital humanitarian aid into Gaza.

"I think it's more likely that a deal can now be done. The pressure on the Israelis to do a deal would also grow," said Abrams.

Relatives of Israelis held by Hamas, the Hostages Families Forum, urged Netanyahu to leverage "this major achievement into an immediate deal to secure hostages' return."

And US President Joe Biden has more power than other countries to pressure Israel, he said.

"The United States will certainly be engaged in discussions now about, what comes next," he added.

But he added that the next stages are uncertain.

"Who is going to govern Gaza, who is going to provide security in Gaza? If there's a ceasefire, that question becomes more immediate, more insistent."

Critics say Netanyahu, who opposes the creation of a Palestinian state, does not have a post-war strategy.

Khalfa said it was "a credible hypothesis" that Netanyahu could declare Hamas defeated and envisage an end to the war.

"Netanyahu can appease his supporters and his far-right allies by offering them this trophy and selling the narrative of a war won," he added.

But he cautioned that some Netanyahu allies in Israel would like to press ahead with the fighting.

- 'Seize opportunity' -

Horowitz said that Sinwar was seen as a key obstacle to a deal.

"His death may be an opportunity to change the dynamic, as talks have been at an impasse for weeks since the escalation in Lebanon and even before," he said.

"The question is whether the Israeli government will seize this opportunity, and whether Sinwar will be replaced by someone with different views," he added.

But if his brother Mohammed Sinwar, also a militant leader wanted by Israel, replaces him, he may not have different positions, said Horowitz.

S.Wilson--ThChM