The China Mail - What's next after Ocalan urges the PKK to disband?

But what happens next is far from clear. Here are four key questions that remain unanswered:

- What next for Ocalan and the PKK? -

When one of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's hardline nationalist allies called on Ocalan to renounce violence and disband the PKK, he mooted a possible early release for the 75-year-old, who was jailed for life in solitary confinement in 1999.

But Bayram Balci, an analyst at the Sciences Po Paris university, said that was unlikely given threats of vengeance against Ocalan following four decades of violence that cost more than 40,000 lives.

"His prison regime could be significantly relaxed and his isolation ended. But it's inconceivable he could visit his parents' village in the southeast."

Ocalan said the PKK would "convene a congress" to disband but it is not clear when that would happen.

Although many fear a backlash if the process fails, the PKK had been "very weakened", making further violence unlikely, Balci said.

"It can't carry out sophisticated attacks like it used to. Although there's still support and respect for Ocalan and the PKK... there is no support for the armed struggle as in the past," he added.

- Why now? -

Analysts say the events triggered by Hamas's October 7, 2023 attacks on Israel sparked a regional domino effect which Turkey quickly recognised as both a threat and an opportunity.

In offering a tentative olive branch to Ocalan in October, Ankara was seeking to address the long-running Kurdish question at both a domestic and a regional level, according to experts.

Berk Esen, a political scientist at Istanbul's Sabanci University, said Turkey's outreach was very much related to domestic politics, coming just months after Erdogan's AKP suffered a blow at the ballot box.

- What does Erdogan hope to gain? -

Analysts say a deal with the Kurds could allow Erdogan to amend the constitution and extend his term in office.

"He hopes the end of the conflict with the PKK will enable an agreement with DEM," said Hamish Kinnear, senior analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, referring to the pro-Kurdish opposition party that facilitated the contact with Ocalan.

In exchange for the release of DEM members from prison and concessions on Kurdish cultural and language rights, "Erdogan may be able to garner the parliamentary support necessary to amend the constitution," he said.

"This would pave the way for him to seek an unprecedented third presidential term in 2028."

Under the current constitution, Erdogan cannot run again for the presidency.

To change it, he would need 360 votes in parliament -- a figure his ruling alliance cannot muster without DEM's 57 seats.

- What would DEM and the Kurds gain?

How Ocalan's declaration will benefit the Kurds, who account for some 20 percent of Turkey's 85 million population, remains unclear.

What DEM will gain as a reward for its role in relaying messages between Ocalan and Turkey's political establishment is likewise not evident.

Despite its outreach, the government had continued "business as usual" with the Kurds by targeting them, jailing them and removing 10 DEM mayors on "terror" charges, said Gonul Tol of Washington's Middle East Institute.

Some Turkish media reports have mooted the possible release of Kurdish political prisoners.

Anthony Skinner, director of research at Marlow Global said this carrot-and-stick policy would continue for as long as the government thought it had something to gain.

"Erdogan's administration has dangled the prospect of peace above their noses while sustaining a crackdown. I expect the government to sustain this approach to achieve terms that are as favourable as possible," he told AFP.

- What impact on Turkey's democracy? -

"It's clear that the dissolution of the PKK does not mean the end of the Kurdish question, which remains linked to the democratisation of Turkey," said Hamit Bozarslan, a Paris-based specialist on Kurdish issues.

Opposition leader Ozgur Ozel, who heads the CHP, hailed Ocalan's call to lay down arms and said the Kurdish question must be settled democratically through Turkey's parliamentary system.

"The solution to all of Turkey's problems is only possible by establishing internal peace (which) is achieved not through an authoritarian system, but through democratic order in line with the principles of law, justice and equality," he wrote on X.

V.Liu--ThChM