The China Mail - Bolsonaro coup trial enters final phase as ally Trump watches

On Tuesday, Brazil's Supreme Court will start passing judgement after weeks of hearings that saw witnesses testify about Bolsonaro's alleged involvement in a plot to claw back power after a 2022 election defeat to leftist rival Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

The 70-year-old Bolsonaro risks about 40 years in prison, and a guilty verdict will likely end any hopes he had of making a political comeback.

In deeply divided Brazil, the case elicits strong opinions: some hailing it as a defense of democratic norms while others denounce a political show trial.

It has also caused a diplomatic rift with the Trump administration, which punished Brazil with sky-high export tariffs for its "politically motivated persecution" of Bolsonaro.

On Tuesday, the trial's presiding judge Alexandre de Moraes -- who has repeatedly clashed with Bolsonaro in the past -- will start summarizing the evidence in the case.

Five days, spread out over 10 days until September 12, have been set aside for the proceedings.

There will be closing statements by the prosecution and defense before Moraes and four other judges vote, one by one, to convict or acquit Bolsonaro and seven co-accused.

A simple majority of three "yes" votes are needed for a verdict in the first-ever coup trial for a former leader of Brazil, which emerged from two decades of military dictatorship in 1985.

Prosecutors maintain Bolsonaro was aware of plans to assassinate Lula and the judge, Moraes, as part of the comeback plot that would have entailed the declaration of a "state of siege" to allow for new elections to be held.

- 'Witch hunt' -

The former head of state, who served a single term from 2019 to 2022, claims to be the victim of political persecution.

It is a view shared by Trump, who has denounced a "witch hunt" of his ally and imposed a 50 percent tariff on a variety of exports from Brazil while the US Treasury sanctioned Moraes.

The pressure has done little to alleviate Bolsonaro's plight.

While awaiting the verdict, he has been ordered to wear an electronic bracelet, and was banned from social media and placed under house arrest with round-the-clock surveillance.

He is expected to follow the final phase of the trial from home, according to people close to the former president.

In the event of a guilty verdict, he could be sent to prison right away. He could still appeal.

- High stakes -

The setting of the trial is symbolic for a country rocked on January 8, 2023 by thousands of Bolsonaro backers violently storming the Supreme Court, presidential palace and parliamentary buildings in Brasilia.

The protesters, who left a trail of material destruction in their wake, had urged the military to intervene to unseat Lula, who had assumed office just a week earlier.

Security around the court will be reinforced in the coming days.

Four of the last seven occupants of Brazil's Planalto presidential palace have been convicted, jailed or impeached. Bolsonaro would be the fifth.

The group includes Lula, 79, who was imprisoned for 580 days in 2018 and 2019 on a corruption conviction later overturned for procedural errors.

Regardless of the outcome of his trial, Bolsonaro has been declared ineligible to seek public office until 2030 after being found guilty of spreading disinformation about Brazil's voting system.

Lula has said he will seek another term in elections next year.

C.Smith--ThChM