The China Mail - Breakthrough or prelude to attack? What we know about Iran-US talks

According to Iranian media, "indirect negotiations" will take place on Friday in Muscat, the capital of Oman, and be "limited to the nuclear issue and the lifting of sanctions on Iran".

But the US side has confirmed neither the timing nor the agenda, and above all the outcome of what could be a critical turning point remains unclear.

- What is at stake? -

Trump has not ruled out new military action against Iran should the talks fail, to follow the US attacks on Iranian nuclear sites during Israel's June war against the Islamic republic.

"Right now we're talking to them, we're talking to Iran, and if we can work something out that'd be great. And if we can't, probably bad things would happen," Trump said Tuesday.

The US has sent a battlegroup led by aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln to the region while Iran has threatened retaliation against US bases in the region and vessels if it is attacked.

Tensions between the two foes, who have no diplomatic relations, rose in the wake of the crackdown by Iranian security forces on a wave of protests that has left thousands dead according to rights groups.

But it remains unclear what form any American military intervention would take, ranging from targeted strikes against military infrastructure to a bid to uproot the clerical system under supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that has ruled Iran since the 1979 Islamic revolution.

- Who is involved? -

Iran is to be represented at the talks by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and the US by Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, the White House and Iranian presidency have said.

Witkoff, a former real estate mogul, wears multiple hats in foreign policy under Trump and is also actively involved in efforts to end Russia's war against Ukraine.

Araghchi is a veteran diplomat who has spent his career in the Iranian foreign ministry, gaining a reputation as a wily and patient negotiator. A fluent English speaker, he studied for his PhD on Islamic political thought at England's University of Kent.

- What do both sides want? -

Trump's initial calls on Tehran last month were focused on telling the leadership to "stop killing" protesters and warning the authorities not to execute any protesters.

But his focus has shifted to agreeing a new deal on the Iranian nuclear programme which the US and its allies believe is aimed at making an atomic bomb.

Washington also wants to curtail Iran's support for proxy forces in the region and cut its vast arsenal of ballistic missiles.

Iran has repeatedly stressed that any talks should focus solely on the nuclear issue and not its missile program or defence capabilities.

- Location hunting -

Initial indications suggested the meeting would be held on Friday in NATO member Turkey, whose President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a pious Sunni Muslim, has on occasion had testy relations with the Shiite theocracy in Tehran but was eager to mediate.

Talks are now expected to take place in Oman but the scope of the discussions needs to be agreed, an Arab diplomat told AFP on Wednesday.

"A meeting is requested in Oman by the Iranians, and the Americans have approved the location, but the parameters of discussions are still being worked on," the diplomat said on condition of anonymity.

Another regional source with knowledge of the talks said Iran wanted the talks to be "exclusively" with the United States without the involvement of regional powers and solely focused on the nuclear issue.

White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told Fox News Tuesday that Witkoff is still expected "to have conversations with the Iranians late this week," despite the shooting down of an Iranian drone that approached the Abraham Lincoln in the Middle East on Tuesday.

- What is the mood in Iran?-

Iran is recovering from what rights groups have described as an unprecedented mass killing in the crackdown, under the cover of a weeks-long internet blackout.

In a sign of the febrile atmosphere, Tehran municipality issued a statement Wednesday saying loud sounds in the city centre were due to a religious holiday and not any other cause.

A new billboard appeared in Tehran showing American planes crashed into a hillside with Iranians flying the flag of the Islamic republic above.

Prominent Iranian news agency Fars, seen as close to the security forces, has in recent days published without comment images of US bases in the Middle East.

W.Tam--ThChM