The China Mail - Fuel, fertilizer costs strain US farmers' support for Republicans in midterms

Still, he told AFP: "I did vote for Trump, and it kind of makes you grit your teeth. Just, what are you doing?"

It has been a tough year for farmers like Schacht, who are a crucial base of political support for Republicans pushing to retain control of Congress in November's midterm elections.

Ohio, where Schacht and his wife Lisa are based, is becoming a battleground for key Senate and House races too, despite Trump's double-digit win in the state in 2024. There, rising expenses are squeezing voters while data centers spark backlash.

In the fields, the cost of diesel needed to run combines as farmers start harvesting soybeans, corn and other crops this month has skyrocketed more than 67 percent since February.

Schacht said some fertilizers he needs for the next planting season have doubled in price.

This comes as Tehran maintains a chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global energy and fertilizer transit. It launched the blockage in response to US-Israel strikes that killed Iran's supreme leader as the conflict started February 28, and both sides remain locked in war.

Schacht expects many farmers who support Trump would "stay the course" by backing Republicans.

"I'm not going to change," said the 69-year-old. But people are growing "tense," feeling that "this wasn't what I expected."

- 'Not just a catchphrase' -

Despite Washington's efforts to "make sure Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons," including by bombing nuclear sites in mid-2025, "it just keeps going and going," Schacht said.

Commodity prices have risen about 20 percent this year, far less than fuel and fertilizer costs.

"We just have to bite the bullet. I'm not going to just leave the crop in the field," he added.

His wife Lisa, 67, told AFP that farmers who support Republicans have reasons beyond economics.

"They still have a strong belief that 'Make America Great Again' is not just a catchphrase," she said.

She pointed to a desire to boost domestic production in agriculture and other sectors, alongside a wish to propagate "family values" and liberties.

In 2024, Trump won 78 percent of the vote in farming-dependent counties.

- 'Flailing away' -

The question is whether cost woes will cause Republican supporters to sit out this time.

"There are farmers really flailing away" and drastically concerned about fuel costs, Joe Logan, interim president of the Ohio Farmers Union, told AFP.

Escalations in the Middle East war came ahead of planting and harvest seasons, both periods of intensive fuel usage.

"Most farmers have been living on a very thin edge of profitability," said Logan, 77, himself a soybean, corn and wheat farmer.

The conflict with Iran is just the latest blow to farmers already buffeted by Trump's trade war with China in his first presidency and low crop prices.

Farm bankruptcies jumped 46 percent from 2024 to 2025, with the Midwest outpacing other regions, on lower revenue and rising expenses.

Logan estimates about 40 percent of US soybeans are exported, with China traditionally a key buyer.

But tit-for-tat tariffs between the world's two biggest economies caused billions in US agriculture export losses between 2018 and 2019.

"Once we've pulled the rug out from underneath that relationship, it's really difficult to build it back," Logan said, pointing to strong competition from producers like Brazil and Argentina.

Trump's spiraling trade conflict with Ottawa is adding to worries, as Canada is a top supplier of potash needed as fertilizer in the United States.

Many farmers are "seriously worried" about the availability of potassium and compounds over the next year, Logan said.

"What is likely to happen is that we won't see a groundswell of all those people going to vote for Democrats," he said.

Instead, he expects: "What we will see is a lot of those folks saying, 'I'm not as enthusiastic about Mr. Trump and the Republicans as I used to be. I'm just going to stay home.'"

B.Clarke--ThChM