The China Mail - Restrictions expose Ukraine's Starlink dependency in Russia war: observers

A senior Ukrainian official, who asked not to be named, told AFP on Wednesday that Starlink data communication speeds had been "throttled".

The change has come at a time of renewed tension between Kyiv and Washington, with US President Donald Trump seeking to bring down global fuel prices by buying Russian diesel and pressuring both sides to stop attacking energy infrastructure.

Starlink is controlled by SpaceX, the satellite and space company of Trump ally and billionaire tycoon Elon Musk, who also owns the X social media platform. SpaceX has yet to clarify what caused the restrictions reported by Kyiv.

Trump has grown increasingly frustrated with Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy facilities, prompting fears of US retaliation against Kyiv, such as halting intelligence sharing or slowing down Starlink.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that his country had "some difficulties... about Starlink and about intelligence" as it confronted Russian attacks on Wednesday.

"We count on partnership with the United States, we just want to be very honest, very clear, be strong partners," he said.

Several Ukrainian sources said the satellite communications constellation now cuts the signal between a satellite and an antenna if the latter moves faster than around 160 kilometres (100 miles) per hour.

This means that Ukrainian mobile military assets, such as aerial drones, lose their connection if they exceed this speed.

Drones have emerged as a key weapon in the conflict, which was sparked by Russia's 2022 full-scale invasion of its neighbour.

The restrictions "complicate drone missions -- particularly those involving interceptors and medium-range strikes -- and reduce capabilities regarding frontline logistics, reconnaissance and communication relays", a Ukrainian ministry of defence source said, asking not to be named.

- 'Significant impact' -

In terms of offensive capabilities, Starlink was "extremely effective" for attacks on radar targets, surface-to-air systems or defended sites, said a European industry source who asked not to be named.

"It allows for operations at very low altitudes -- it is controlled by a signal from space, bypassing the radio horizon and the Earth's curvature -- factors that otherwise limit ground-based remote control signals."

The source added that jamming Starlink signals -- a crucial potential tactic to disrupt communications -- is very difficult and consumes a lot of energy.

The restrictions, however, should have no effect on Ukrainian longer-range strikes -- particularly against refineries deep within Russian territory where the Starlink constellation does not operate.

But it "could have a significant impact on medium-range strikes on" Ukraine's Crimea peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014, in areas in east Ukraine occupied by Moscow, or in the Black Sea, said Yohann Michel, a research fellow at the Lyon-based Institute for Strategic and Defence Studies (IESD).

Perhaps most importantly, the restrictions could test Kyiv's ability to defend Ukraine against swarms of Russian drones.

The concerns come at a time when Ukrainian air defence systems are running low and winter approaches, bringing with it intensified Russian strikes on energy infrastructure aimed at undermining public morale.

- 'Massive' Ukrainian reliance -

"Ukrainian reliance on Starlink is massive," said Michel, noting that "the majority of Ukrainian transmissions depend on it".

Zelensky's technology adviser Sergiy Beskrestnov wrote on Telegram that SpaceX had "introduced a speed limit for the Starlink terminals in motion".

He said this restriction "led to the disruption of a number of missions" and deprived Ukraine of its ability to fight Russian jet-powered drones.

According to Beskrestnov, Ukraine uses Starlink to help intercept drones, although exactly how this works has never been made clear.

Although there is so far no confirmation that the restrictions are linked to tensions between Washington and Kyiv, analysts were alert to the possibility.

"We will have to wait a few days to see if the problem persists, and whether it is widespread or limited to Ukraine," said the IESD's Michel.

"Nothing can be ruled out -- from American pressure on the Ukrainians regarding strikes on diesel supplies to a much more mundane explanation, such as a software update," he added.

Y.Parker--ThChM