The China Mail - Is Bukele's troop deployment in Haiti just a rescue mission?

President Nayib Bukele ordered the rapid deployment after four Salvadoran personnel, who were operating in Haiti as part of a UN-backed anti-gang force, went missing in an ambush attack on October 18.

"The only thing we want is for our four aviation technicians to return home," Bukele said Thursday in a post on X, written in Haitian creole.

The troops are not operating under a UN framework and the scale of the deployment has raised concerns that their presence could add havoc to efforts to rein in the gangs.

"Our mission is not to wipe out the gangs in Haiti" but to retrieve the four Salvadoran technicians, Bukele told journalists at a press conference late on Thursday, as he sought to address the concerns.

"Now, if they don't hand them over willingly, we're going to rescue them by force" and leave the country, he said.

"But if not, well, we'll move in little by little," he added.

Bukele accompanied his social media post with a video of soldiers filing into planes and cargo being loaded, a stylized compilation that is a hallmark of his tireless social media presence.

"We didn't come to Haiti to make money, because no one is paying us for that. We came to Haiti to fight against the wicked," he said.

- Bukele model -

With more than 2,000 troops deployed and counting, "just from a practical standpoint...that's not just a search and rescue mission," said Jake Johnston, a Haiti expert and director of international research the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington.

"It seems likely that this is a longer term deployment aimed at a broader security objective," he told AFP.

And while "all signs point to this being something done with with US support," Johnston said, Washington has remained tight-lipped.

The Pentagon confirmed to AFP that it sent at least two military aircraft to Port-au-Prince for logistical support last week. The State Department has meanwhile not commented.

AFP has identified about 20 charter flights between San Salvador and Port-au-Prince between October 22-29, according to flight-tracking data on FlightRadar24 and AirNav Radar. None of the aircraft had flown through San Salvador in the previous twelve months.

During the same period, satellite imagery shows ten tent-like structures were erected at the military section of Port-au-Prince's international airport.

Why is Bukele embarking on such a risky operation in Haiti, where years of international security efforts have failed to wrest back control from gangs?

Johnston pointed to Bukele's political persona, which revolves around his iron-fisted crackdown on organized crime in his Cental American country.

"There is an interest in... exporting and selling that model to the world, and this looks like an opportunity to show that off," Johnston said.

But the risks are major: "If he does indeed fail, or if more Salvadoran troops are killed, that's a big blow to the narrative that has surrounded Bukele for for many years now."

- Myriad forces -

How the Salvadoran troops will cooperate with myriad forces already in Haiti also remain to be seen.

The UN-backed Gang Suppression Force (GSF) -- which replaced an understaffed and ultimately ineffective Kenya-led force -- has deployed around 2,000 troops. It has hoped to grow to 5,000.

There is also the Haitian National Police, the Haitian Army, and foreign military contractors all operating.

"You have five separate forces operating on the ground without a proper unifying chain of command," said Diego Da Rin, a Crisis Group analyst.

There is some collaboration, he said, but the situation is "very unorthodox."

"While some do the clearing part of the operations. Some are holding some positions that have been cleared."

"Each force has different rules of engagement and different tactics and technology. For example, the contractors have explosive drones," he said.

Johnston worries that the rapid buildup of the Salvadoran force will give it more power than the GSF, whose UN mandate is up for renewal in months.

Haitian authorities have referred to "security cooperation" with El Salvador, but its precise legal framework remains unknown.

burs-nlc-pa-ube/des/yad

C.Mak--ThChM