The China Mail - Ex-Joint Staff Chief Yoshida Warns U.S. Politics Has Become a 'Variable' in Indo-Pacific Security

Yoshihide Yoshida, former chief of staff of the Joint Staff and current president of Japan’s National Defense Academy, has characterized United States politics as a “variable” in global security, citing Washington’s growing emphasis on national interests over the maintenance of a liberal international order.

In an interview with The Asahi Shimbun, Yoshida outlined his assessment of the current geopolitical landscape, describing it as an era defined by power politics and the increasing prevalence of force among major powers. He warned that the world stands at a watershed moment, drawing parallels to the interwar period between World War I and World War II as depicted by British historian E. H. Carr in "The Twenty Years’ Crisis."

"History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes," Yoshida said. "We stand at a watershed moment that will determine whether we repeat the tragic history experienced a century ago."

Yoshida, who served as chief of staff of the Joint Staff from 2023 to 2025 before becoming president of the National Defense Academy in April 2026, noted that while Europe and the Middle East have already experienced hot wars, the primary security challenge for Asia through the middle of the 21st century is preventing such a conflict in the Indo-Pacific.

Addressing the role of the United States, Japan’s only treaty ally, Yoshida observed a shift in American strategic behavior. He pointed to the U.S. National Security Strategy formulated late last year, which identified the Western Hemisphere as its highest strategic priority. He suggested that recent U.S. military actions, such as strikes on Iran, could be viewed as departures from stated grand strategies.

"For many years after World War II, the United States served as the leader of a value system that sustained the liberal international order," Yoshida said. "Today, however, it places less emphasis on that value system and increasingly prioritizes national interests, frequently resorting to the use of force. In that sense, I personally believe it is fair to say that U.S. politics has become a variable."

Despite these concerns, Yoshida emphasized that the U.S. military commitment to the Indo-Pacific remains indispensable for maintaining the regional balance of power. He argued that if this commitment were lost, the balance would collapse and Japan’s security could no longer be assured. Consequently, he stated that keeping the United States engaged in the region is Japan’s highest strategic priority.

With the Japanese government preparing to revise its three core security strategy documents later this year, Yoshida called for Tokyo to assume a larger share of responsibility within the alliance. He advocated for further strengthening Japan’s defense capabilities while deepening cooperation with like-minded partners. He highlighted the emergence of multilateral networks in the Indo-Pacific, including Japan-U.S.-South Korea cooperation, the Quad framework (Japan-U.S.-Australia-India), and Japan-U.S.-Australia-Philippines cooperation.

Yoshida also stressed the need for closer ties with European nations, including NATO member states, to bolster collective security.

Regarding Japan’s traditional defense posture, Yoshida addressed questions about the acquisition of strike capabilities, such as long-range missiles, which mark a departure from the Self-Defense Forces’ historical role as the "shield" while U.S. forces serve as the "spear." He affirmed that maintaining a strategic defensive posture is critically important.

"The most important principle is that Japan must remain a country that does not itself pursue a strategy of offensive operations against foreign nations," he said, noting that this stance is rooted in Article 9 of the Constitution.

When asked about potential reviews of Japan’s Three Non-Nuclear Principles—its policy of not possessing, producing, or permitting the introduction of nuclear weapons—Yoshida pointed to the National Security Strategy, which states that the basic policy of upholding these principles will remain unchanged. Instead of altering this stance, he argued that Japan should focus on ensuring the credibility of U.S. extended deterrence, including the nuclear umbrella.

He suggested strengthening extended deterrence by expanding Japan’s independent conventional capabilities and pursuing appropriate joint escalation management with the United States in contingency scenarios.

Reflecting on the broader strategic environment, Yoshida referenced a conversation with Finnish President Alexander Stubb regarding "values-based realism." He acknowledged that in an era of power politics, the center of gravity naturally shifts toward realism. However, he argued that Japan and the international community should work to revitalize liberalism and its emphasis on the rule of law, seeking a balance between realism and liberalism rather than abandoning liberal values.

Yoshida’s career spans decades of service in the Ground Self-Defense Force. Born in 1962, he graduated from the University of Tokyo’s Faculty of Engineering in 1986 and joined the force the same year. He served as a Cabinet counselor at the National Security Secretariat and as chief of staff of the Ground Self-Defense Force before his tenure as Joint Staff chief.

His appointment as president of the National Defense Academy marks an unusual shift for a career SDF officer, placing him in charge of educating the next generation of Japan’s military leadership during a period of significant strategic uncertainty.

G.Tsang--ThChM